Issue 42Sep 21, 2026 · 1 min · From the desk
Selling is harder than buying
Three sell rules we wrote down in advance, because we cannot be trusted in the moment.
Buying gets all the attention. The decision that determines long-run returns is when to sell, and it is the one almost nobody writes rules for in advance.
We use three. They are deliberately mechanical, because the version of you that is watching a position fall thirty percent is not the version of you that did the analysis.
- The thesis broke: the specific thing we said would happen did not, for two consecutive quarters.
- The price became absurd: the company trades above our estimate of the next decade of cash flows.
- Something better: a comparable return with materially lower risk or a wider moat.
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